Energy Week
Ellen Wald and Ryan Ray discuss the week's events in energy, and what it all means to you. energyweek.substack.com
Episodes
Goldman Sachs expects ‘all time high’ oil demand to spur large deficits, boosting prices
- expect demand to rise by 2 million bpd from India and China
- Is this coming from OPEC via China?
- IEA says global demand will increase by 2.4 million bpd
- Will Saudi Arabia increase production as a result?
Oil markets are still volatile, U.S. en...
Oil slides more than 1% as Chinese GDP dents demand hopes
- GDP grew 6.3% year-on-year in the 2nd quarter, compared with analyst forecasts of 7.3%
- what analysts were forecasting such high growth?
- slow correction where expectations come back down to reality
China's June industrial output rises 4.4%, retail sales up 3.1%
Biofuels are displacing petroleum-based distillate fuel oil consumption on the West Coasthttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57040
- renewable diesel = diesel made from
- biodiesel used as well
- petroleum distillate consumption down on west coast in 2022 but biodiesel consumption up
- unique to west coast
NATIONAL AVERAGE SEES LITTLE CHANGE, GASOLINE DEMAND PLUMMETS AFTER SURGING FOR JULY 4
- Gasoline demand soared on July ...
Oil falls amid China growth uncertainties
- the issue is headwinds, but is China's economy really that bad
- the real issue is that expectations for China's great economic reopening haven't materialized.
- China's demand growth was baked in and now that it's coming in below expectations
- at the same time...China's ref...
Commodities Slide as Investors Bet on Economic Slowdown
https://www.wsj.com/articles/commodities-slide-as-investors-bet-on-economic-slowdown-233a6d3
- if prices trend down to the $60s or $50s by October then Shale producers might curb production plans
Saudi Arabia Springs 1 Million b/d Cut in Opec Megadeal
https://www.energyintel.com/00000188-857f-d6e7-a9ba-efffca560000
- will Aramco take oil from storage if customers want more oil than...
Ford to charge up EV drive with flurry of battery deals
- doubts about Ford's ability to actually hit their EV production targets
- But do people even WANT to buy F-150?
- Ford says its electric vehicle unit is on track to lose $3 billion this year.
NATIONAL AVERAGE PRICE OF GASOLINE HITS PAUSE AS MEMORIAL DAY LOOMS
-...
Big Oil Has $150 Billion in Cash and Investors Want a Share
https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-oil-has-150-billion-in-cash-and-investors-want-a-share-b5cdea35
- oil companies sitting on cash now, but they may need that cash for when prices are lower
- should they return all this cash to shareholders now or keep it to pay out in dividends throughout the next cycle?
- what about needing cash to account for uncertainty in regulations?
Oil’s ...
China’s mixed economic data fuels concerns about recovery
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/05/01/business/china-economic-recovery-concerns/#
- Is this something that China can deal with domestically? Or is it the fault of the global economy which isn't ordering as much stuff from China?
- China's consumer demand is doing ok, but the industrial side of China is patchy.
- Is this just pent up consumer demand and the consumer econom...
Biden admin preparing major crackdown on power plants that fuel nation's grid
- EPA planning to issue regulation that would limit emissions from fossil fuel power plants. Basically would require plants to shut down or install costly carbon capture facilities.
- Would drive up prices
- Is this being done in order to run on it in the nex...
Russia forecasts stable oil output to 2025, to set up stockpiles
- Russia wants to build their stockpiles. Are they taking 500,000bpd off the market and putting it in storage or are they going to cut production in order to keep that oil in the ground and that's storage?
- Russia could be planning to not actually cut production...
OPEC+ announces surprise oil output cuts
- Does OPEC think that China's oil demand isn't coming back strong?
- Russia retaliating against price cap from West
- Want to defend $80 or higher oil
- Could it be about speculation? Speculators LOVE big price jumps.
- Reaction to lack of price support from demand side (US SPR buys...
Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. Clash Over Oil, Yemen as Rift Grows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-and-u-a-e-clash-over-oil-yemen-as-rift-grows-ff286ff9
- "Once close friends, the two biggest Arab economies are increasingly competing for money and power"
- Will the UAE leave OPEC?
- Doubtful because UAE benefits more by staying in OPEC
- They like people to think that they are talking about leaving
- UAE has spare capacity
Forget Peak...
Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in March
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-cut-oil-output-by-500000-bpd-march-2023-02-10/
-"As of today, we are fully selling the entire volume of oil produced, however, as stated earlier, we will not sell oil to those who directly or indirectly adhere to the principles of the 'price cap'," Novak said
- Are they cutting to see who will pay above $60 and who will adhere to price cap?
...
No OPEC ministerial meeting, but the Saudi oil minister gets his 2-cents in
Saudi energy minister cautious on oil production, warns on investment outlook and geopoliticshttps://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/020423-saudi-energy-minister-cautious-on-oil-production-warns-on-investment-outlook-and-geopolitics- ABS says: "With all due respect, forecasters are good forecasters. They do their best bu...
Worst London air pollution in six years as home fires burnhttps://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/27/worst-london-air-pollution-in-six-years-as-home-fires-burn
- wood is a really dirty burning fuel
- its expensive to pay for heating, people turning to fires, but this is actually a really high emission fuel
Natural Gas Shortages Hit China as Temperatures Plungehttps://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/25/business/china-natural-gas-short...
Russian oil trade remains in ship-shape as the EU price cap has failed to stem Moscow's freight and insurance income, analyst sayshttps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-india-china-not-cheap-shipping-fees-kpler-analyst-2023-1
- "Debunking number one, no one really knows the price of Russian oil"
- Urals blend may be priced at $38/barrel (less than half price of Brent) but now Russia is selling all these othe...
China’s corn-based ethanol fuel threatens food security while crowding the market, state commentary warns
- China can't feed its own people, and they are using corn for fuel
- The US puts ethanol in gasoline to replace MBTE (found to cause cancer) but now puts...
Oil rises on demand optimism as China borders reopen
- we are seeing back and forth with whether CHina's demand is going to surge or not
- Saudi Arabia cuts its OSP to Asia - indicates they think that demand in China is soft
- China issued a second batch of 2023 crude import quotas, Reuters says this makes the total...
Subscribe to the newsletter
WTI higher or lower than $73, Brent higher or lower than $77?
Ellen-Higher
Ryan-says Lower (but really thinks higher)
Biden adviser calls investor refusal to ramp up shale drilling ‘un-American’
“I think that the idea that financiers would tell companies in the United States not to...
Subscribe to the newsletter
Oil prices rose as much as 2% on hopes of China’s reopening and as OPEC+ maintains output cut targetshttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/05/oil-prices-rise-as-much-as-2percent-on-signs-of-china-covid-easing.html
- OPEC decided production quotas from Oct 5 continued through end of 2023, next meeting June 4, 2023
- Meetings of JMMC only 2 months
- OPEC might feel like oil market is more stable? Or that it will take a...
Popular Podcasts
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations.
Anna Sale explores the big questions and hard choices that are often left out of polite conversation.
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people.
A straightforward look at the day's top news in 20 minutes. Powered by ABC News. Hosted by Brad Mielke.